In the heart of the Middle East’s crisis, stands the Islamic Republic of Iran, a powerful player, who was able to create and sustain cards in all the surrounding countries, and to lead a big part of the game, with factions, who are different religiously or ethnically from him. From the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan to the 2003 toppling of Saddam Hussein, the strategic balance shifted in the Middle East towards the Iranians. But after the Syrian crisis and the failure of the 2010 nuclear negotiations which sparked crippling sanctions, this balance is about to shift again, but not necessarily in the favor of Iran. This will oblige the regime in Tehran to rethink its policies, and to determine its stance. What will define the Iranian in this period? Is it the hasty revolutionary or the careful carpet weaver? Is it the close-minded ideologue or the open minded pragmatic? To answer these questions we should begin by describing Iran’s political, economic, nuclear, and regional situation, and try in the end to define the course of action that’ll be taken.

1- The Internal Iranian Dynamics

Anyone who reads any book published recently by the Iranian lobby¹ in the U.S. can say that the Iranian establishment learned from its earlier mistakes, and the first evidence of this, was the election of Hassan Rowhani. Away from the conspiracy theory, we can now say that Rowhani’s victory was in the benefit of the regime, which can no longer support the burden of the economic situation and the regional developments. After the elections, a group of Iranian social scientists² gathered to try to explain the voting pattern that led to Rowhani’s victory. In addition to the economy, the major cause was the “hope that turned into public concern” after the disqualification of Rafsanjani by the guardian council, and the victimization feeling which plays a big role in every Shiite heart, remembering the martyrdom of Hussein who was a victim of injustice. It is true that these social dynamics are difficult to be controlled or manipulated in order to direct the elections in a certain direction, but there are some clues of regime interference to let Rowhani win. The division of the principlists into 4 candidates, in front of 1 centrist candidate (who took also the form of reformist), the victory from the first round with roughly 1% over the half of the voters³, and the result of the municipal elections⁴ which took place on same day with the presidential one, that showed a victory for the principlists (in contrast with the presidential), all are clues that the Supreme Leader, the man who directs the decisions of the guardian council on the potential candidates, wanted a new picture for the Islamic Republic, totally different from the Ahmadinejad era.

After the elections, the political scene changed inside Iran. The power structure is now divided between three major entities: the Supreme Leader⁵, the IRGC, and the Rowhani/Rafsanjani faction. More and more criticism is expressed against the IRGC’s involvement in the economy⁶, against the way foreign policy was conducted before, against the meddling in Syria which caused economic and political instability⁷. More protests⁸ are taking the streets due to the economic situation, the loss of jobs⁹ and the high unemployment rate¹⁰.

Two languages are spoken by Iran, and it might not be a matter of dissimilation, but one of competing interests: the language of diplomacy and openness and the language of military and threats. The president and his faction are trying their best to look in the face of the open minded, negotiation-ready group, and they started to take some measures in this direction, from the introduction of female figures into the political¹¹ and sports¹² arena, to the social media¹³ Public Relations campaign conducted by the ministers of Rowhani’s cabinet and himself, to the talk about releasing the Green movement’s leader from house arrest¹⁴, to decreasing the internet censorship, etc… On the other side, the IRGC’s language of force, military drills¹⁵, weapons development¹⁶, intervention outside Iran, assassination plots¹⁷, obtaining a nuclear bomb etc… It is after all, the decision of the Supreme Leader which will prevail, but the Islamic Republic’s fate is at stakes these days.

2- The Economic Situation

Three years have passed since the United States and its international partners started the sanctions program in a try to halt the Iranian Nuclear Program. These sanctions, added to the economic policies of Ahmadinejad’s governments since 2005, and the Syrian crisis, were devastating to Iran’s economy. The major “shareholders” – if we can describe them so – of Iran’s financial and economic structure are facing existential threat. These shareholders, i.e. the official state’s treasury, the “Bonyads”¹⁸ or religious foundations controlled by the Supreme Leader, the IRGC’s consortium¹⁹, the “Bazar” and the private investors within the regime, are all in an unforeseen situation.

For the first time in more than 20 years, Iran’s economy contracted²⁰ by 1.9% in 2012, and by 5.4% in the past Iranian calendar²¹ which ended March 20, with a budget deficit of 23 billion dollars²², a 44% inflation rate, and around 12% unemployment²³ (around 9 million Iranians). The government’s debt to the country’s banks is 113.47 billion dollars²⁴, if we take the official rate of 24779 Rials per Dollar which was announced by the central bank²⁵. 100 billion dollars’ worth of foreign assets is frozen in foreign bank accounts²⁶. This led the newly formed government to alter the old Ahmadinejad’s era subsidy plan, and stop cash handouts²⁷ to millions of Iranians who aren’t in desperate need for them. Important figures were appointed by the new president in a try to halt the deterioration, from the head of the central bank²⁸ who was brought from the private banking sector, to the advisory group of the president consisting of professionals in the economy who worked closely with Rowhani when he was head of the Strategic Research Center of the Expediency council. These professionals come from the “Niavaran”²⁹ school of thought, which believes in privatization, deregulation, and economic openness, similar to the economic policy pursued by the former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani during the economic crisis resulting from the Iran-Iraq war.

As for the treasury of the Supreme Leader and the money of the IRGC, the Syrian crisis is the major source of concern. Many protests took the streets of Iranian cities shouting “leave Syria, care for us”. From the 4 billion credit line³⁰ in the form of fuel purchases, to the 500 million³¹ obtained in January 2013 as a deposit in the Syrian central bank, to the 10 billion reportedly paid³² around September 2012, to the hard-to-calculate money (estimated by some sources to be 1 billion per month³³) paid for Assad army, Shiite militiamen, weapons, logistics, and training in both Iraq and Iran³⁴. Some sources inside the Maronite Committee for land preserving, ensure that the IRGC funded its first months in the Syrian involvement by selling land in Lebanon to Maronites businessmen through Bkerki insiders.

As for the sanctions, the list goes back³⁵ to 1979, but the crippling ones, date back to 2010. They were implemented step by step, with enhancements and refining every new round. They began by hitting the oil exports³⁶, which decreased Iran’s exports until this day, by more than a half, and forced Iran to use its transport ships as floating reservoirs³⁷ after the on-land reservoirs were filled to their maximum capacity. The sanctions continued to ban Iran from the access to Dollar and Euro³⁸, which played an important role in increasing the inflation rate and decreasing the value of the Iranian Rial³⁹. Then, to block the access to other currencies (like Yuan and Rupee⁴⁰) another round of sanctions obliged Iran to replace the direct money payments, by material imports from the economies of the countries still eligible to U.S. exemption⁴¹ from the sanctions of purchasing oil from Iran. Another rounds of sanctions affected the IRGC’s companies and individuals⁴², the major industries in Iran⁴³, which are by majority in the hands of private investors within the power circles of the regime. Indeed, the sanctions worked, and many countries and international companies and businesses leaved Iran⁴⁴. Nevertheless, Iran is trying to evade from some sanctions using many tactics, and some of them are working. The shipping industry was seen turning off the GPRS devices on its ships to try to port illegally and sell oil or other exports, primarily by putting a flag for other countries, as was the case raised by Tanzania⁴⁵. Another tactic is by filing lawsuits in European courts⁴⁶ by some Iranian firms and banks, with the argument that these entities are not related to the nuclear program. Many cases were won by the Iranians, and this was a major cause of rift between the U.S. and some European countries⁴⁷. Another tactic is by using force, and it was a first, when the Iranian navy captured⁴⁸ Indian oil tanker carrying Iraqi oil to India, and didn’t release⁴⁹ it until they obtained concessions from India⁵⁰, related to the oil and exports market.

3- The Nuclear Issue

It is certain that the Iranian resistance, specially the “Mojahedin-e Khalq”, uncovered many aspects of the secret nuclear program of the regime. But it is more certain that this program was under the eyes of foreign intelligence agencies since the revolution. This program was a material for political concern since the Israelis dropped the periphery doctrine⁵¹ in the early 1990s and began stressing the danger of a nuclear Iran. Iran’s nuclear ambition began with the Shah, when he asked and obtained a French help in 1974, after a visit of the then prime minister, Jacques Chiraque⁵², to build the “Tricastin” enrichment facility. It then continued after the revolution, in the beginning of the 1990s when a deal was made between the Iranian establishment and the Pakistani military, where Abdul Qader Khan was pictured in front of the scene, to buy the blueprints Khan obtained from the European institutes he worked in. In 2003, Iran obtained Russian aid from Yefremov institute (part of Rosatom) in the Laser enrichment technique, which was implemented in the Lashkar Ab’ad⁵³ site. The research and development continued, until Iranian scientists were able to master several aspects of the nuclear process, and many secret sites were erected to pursue the path towards obtaining nuclear technology. Among the discovered sites, there’s the controversial Parchin⁵⁴ site, in which the IAEA suspects that head implosion tests were conducted, and Iran is banning the agency from entering it, and it is altering the geography and structures⁵⁵ of the site to hide what is thought to be evidences of such tests. There’s also the Fordow⁵⁶ underground facility which holds advanced IR-2 centrifuges, which are 4-5 times faster than the oldest IR-1 model. A new concern, expressed openly by the Israelis, is the Arak heavy water reactor facility⁵⁷, which can produce Plutonium, another material, other than Uranium, by which a nuclear head can be filled. Another secret site⁵⁸ was exposed by the Mojahedin-e Khalq in early July, beneath a mountain near Damavand, in which a project codenamed “Ma’adane-e Charq” (the mine of the east) is being pursued, and they add that the current president was one of the minds behind this project. And maybe, this was a cause of the IRGC’s revenge against the MEK supporters located in camp Ashraf⁵⁹ in Iraq last week, where a massacre took place there.

The international approach, led by the U.S., to the Iranian nuclear issue, especially in the recent years, took two different ways, the direct and indirect negotiations, and the threat approach (sanctions and threat of an Israeli hit on nuclear sites). Serious negotiations were about to end the problem three years ago, until Iran suddenly refused the so-called “Swap Deal”⁶⁰, written by the Russians and the Americans, which would have resulted in a swap of the 1200 Kg of Iranian Low Enriched Uranium in exchange of Russian Medium Enriched Uranium enough for the medical research and nuclear technologies, but not a nuclear bomb (this was a reason why Russia accepted the U.N. sanctions resolution against Iran). This failure led to the devastating economic sanctions, and this is why the new president, is eager to take control of the nuclear file, with his team⁶¹, especially the minister of foreign affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif, to try to reach an agreement with world powers, away from the harsh ideological language. Many officials in the nuclear file were replaced by acceptable figures⁶² experienced in diplomacy and nuclear negotiations. The nuclear path couldn’t be rid of, because it represents an element of the Iranian pride, but cannot continue this way, because it draws from the pockets of every Iranian, day after day. As for the negotiations, some of the countries who played a linking role in the previous ones are entering the scene again, like Japan⁶³, Switzerland⁶⁴ and Oman⁶⁵. What’s new this time is that direct U.S.-Iranian messages are being exchanged both over and under the table⁶⁶.

4- The Syrian Crisis:

From the first months of the Syrian uprising, the IRGC was involved directly on the side of the Assad regime, through its Ground Force unit and the special Quds Force unit led by the General Qassem Suleimani⁶⁷. The failure to repeat in Syria, the scenario of the 2009 elections in Iran when the guards ended the uprising in matter of weeks, was a cause of the Supreme Leader’s anger, and forced the IRGC to call all the militia groups he’s responsible of, to enter the Syrian arena, i.e. Hezbollah⁶⁸, ‘Asaeb Ahl Al Haq, Kataeb Hezbollah⁶⁹, Houthis. This involvement gave results in the battles of Qusair and Damascus, and in the establishment and training of the regimes’ new formed militiamen. Recently, especially after the use of chemical weapons on the 21^st of August, many evidences show that Iran is in real control of Syria’s regime military and political scenes. It was the Iranians who first announced that the regime is willing to accept UN chemical investigators⁷⁰. And it was the Iranians who worked closely with the Russians and Americans to make the recent deal, from the visit of Jeffry Feltman⁷¹ to Iran where he met the foreign affairs minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his deputy Hossein Amir ‘Abd Llahian, to the visit of ‘Abd Llahian to Moscow⁷² where he met with Bogdanov, a night before the announcement of the chemical deal, and he was seen with Walid Al Mu’allim and Busayna Shaaban before they entered the press room and announced the Assad’s regime’s approval on the deal. It is important to note, that Rowhani and his foreign policy team couldn’t have entered in such a process, without the political umbrella that Rafsanjani gave them, when he accused the Syrian government of using chemicals against its own people⁷³, and when a website affiliated to him, published recently an article of a discussion Rafsanjani held a year ago, in which he says that the Alawites are down and they can never rule Syria again⁷⁴.

 

5- Conclusions:

The Iranian establishment is facing crippling economic sanctions and threats of a military attack after the failure of the 2010 nuclear negotiations, and is seeing the deterioration of its strategic investment in the region. In times of danger, the Iranians showed a delicate pragmatic approach to preserve their regime, despite the ideological language heard publically. This was the case in the Iran-Iraq war, where they opened channels with the Americans and Israelis, and bought weapons from the “devils” in what was later know by the Iran-Contra case. This move was described by Rafsanjani, in his book “this is my life”, as “the most important diplomatic achievement in the history of the revolution”. In the midst of this situation, Rowhani became president in a play we suspect the Supreme Leader is behind. This president is well known in the west because after all he was part of the nuclear negotiations, and the Iran-Contra negotiations. His team in the foreign policy is experienced in conducting deals with the west, especially Javad Zarif⁷⁵, the well-known facilitator in assisting the Americans to establish political stability in both Iraq and Afghanistan. His other team in the economic policy is well known for its participation in saving the country’s economy after the devastating war with Iraq. So Rowhani was brought to save the country from a tough situation, and to strike a deal with the west that could relieve the Iranians and protect the very existence of the Islamic Republic.

In the current balance of power, Iran isn’t able to impose its conditions, and concessions will be made on the road. We saw what happened after the Syrian chemical attack, with just a threat of an American strike. There are many signs that could be watched to see if a deal makes its way to its final end. The fate of Hezbollah is a sign; the release or not, of captured Americans and Englishmen inside Iran is also a sign. Any relation with Islamist groups could show what road will the two major losers in the middle east new strategic balance, take, especially if we recall that the most influential thinker of the Jihadi Salafi school, Sayyed Qutb, is the ideal of the Iranian Supreme Leader, who translated three of his books while he was studying to accomplish the “mujtahid” degree in Shiisme⁷⁶.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

References

1- Books and articles of Trita Parsi, Ray Takyeh, Vali Nasr…

2-   Analysis of the Iranian presidential election: researchers engage in discourse at a conference of the Iranian Sociological Association.

http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/Data/articles/Art_20535/E_099_13_1802037196.pdf

3- Moderate Rohani scores outright Iran election victory. http://www.reuters.com/video/2013/06/15/moderate-rohani-scores-outright-iran-ele?videoId=243374995

4- إعادة انتخاب المرشح الرئاسي الإيراني محمد باقر قالیباف عمدة لطھران

http://alhayat.com/Details/549701

Masjed-Jamei elected Tehran City Council chairman. http://www.tehrantimes.com/politics/110476-masjed-jamei-elected-tehran-city-council-chairman

Principlists, reformists dominate Tehran City Council.

http://www.tehrantimes.com/politics/108625-principlists-reformists-dominate-tehran

5- Rouhani and the Revolutionary Guards.

http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2013/jul/23/rouhani-and-revolutionary-guards

Rafsnajani: IRGC wants nothing short of whole Iran.

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/25492

Iran: Qom Seminary Teachers in crisis due to infighting within the regime.

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/27259

روحاني ينتقد سلفه ويتودّد إلى البرلمان وخامنئي يودّع نجاد بمدح جھوده الجبارة

http://alhayat.com/Details/533008

6- The Revolutionary Guards’ involvement in the economy comes under increasing criticism following Rowhani’s victory in the presidential election.

http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/Data/articles/Art_20557/E_127_13_1619462609.pdf

7- “Stop supporting Assad (Syria), Do something to help us!” Protest in Tehran Oct 3, 2012.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMkT_4QDtkM

8- Iran: angry public protests in Zanjan with the slogan of “don’t be afraid, we are all together”.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/28160

More than 2000 inmates in Ghezel Hessar prison go on hunger strike in protest at collective executions and dire conditions.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/26273

Iran: 7 wounded protesters blinded after repressive forces attack protesting Isfahan farmers.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/24310

Retired steel mill workers continue protests in Isfahan.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29486

Khuzestan pipe factory workers stage protest rally.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29476

Women students protest mullahs’ sex segregation plans in universities.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29475

Bakery workers on strike in Kurdish city in Iran.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29466

University students stage protest gathering in Tehran.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29431

Arak residents continue protesting high air pollution.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29429

Latest report on protest rallies across Iran.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29395

Dervish inmates stage protest in Tehran’s Evin Prison.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29394

Iran: Brief news on protests, 1-10 Sept 2013.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29328

Iran: aluminum workers in Tehran’s Pakdasht district stage protest rally.

http://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29309

etc….

9- Iran: More job losses and factory closures across Iran.

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/28167

10- Iran: Regime minister predicts ‘tsunami’ of 8.5 million unemployed.

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/28891

11- Iran President Rohani appoints female deputy.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.541072

Iran: Rohani forms cabinet, appoints female VP.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4416942,00.html

Iran foreign ministry appoints first-ever spokeswoman.

http://news.yahoo.com/iran-foreign-ministry-appoints-first-ever-spokeswoman-130919529.html

Rohani appoints senior security, environment officials.

http://tehrantimes.com/politics/110660-rohani-appoints-senior-security-environment-officials

12- Iran allows first female triathlete to compete for country.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/12/iran-first-female-triathlete-compete

 

 

Meet Shirin Gerami, Iran’s first female triathlete.

 

http://theiranproject.com/blog/2013/09/15/meet-shirin-gerami-irans-first-female-triathlete/

13- Hassan Rouhani’s cabinet open Facebook accounts.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/10296861/Hassan-Rouhanis-cabinet-open-Facebook-accounts.html

14- Does Rouhani Hold ‘Key’ to Release Mousavi and Karroubi?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/07/rouhani-mousavi-karoubi-release.html

15- Iran Army, IRGC to hold joint drill: Cmdr.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/09/09/322898/iran-army-irgc-to-hold-joint-drill-cmdr/

Iran to hold massive air defense military drills with army and IRGC – commander.

http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/2186382.html

Commander: IRGC ground force to stage massive drills soon.

http://theiranproject.com/blog/2013/09/15/commander-irgc-ground-force-to-stage-massive-drills-soon/

16- IRGC demonstrates new weapons.

http://www.janes.com/article/11091/irgc-demonstrates-new-weapons

IRGC to get new anti-ship missiles.

http://www.janes.com/article/12484/irgc-to-get-new-anti-ship-missiles

IRGC tests new shoulder-launched anti-aircraft gun.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/02/24/290505/iran-tests-shoulderlaunched-antiaircraft-gun/

Iran equips IRGC Aerospace Force with long-range missile launchers.

http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/05/26/305548/iran-arms-irgc-with-missile-launchers/

Jamaran-2, Iran Destroyer, Launched In The Caspian Sea.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/17/jamaran-2-destroyer-iran-caspian-sea_n_2895553.html

17- Qods Force Terrorist Plot in the U.S.

http://www.irantracker.org/analysis/zarif-irgc-qods-force-terror-plot-october-11-2011

Treasury Sanctions Five Individuals Tied to Iranian Plot to Assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United States.

http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/pages/tg1320.aspx

18- Bonyads: These are conglomerates of firms of all sizes, government subsidized, consortiums receiving religious donations, answerable directly and only to the supreme leader, controlling an estimated 20% of Iran’s GDP, and are exempt from taxes. Among the most important Bonyads, we find: “Bonyad-e Mostafazan” (Foundation of the Opressed), around 1200 firms. It replaced the Bahlawi’s Bonyad of the Shah. “Bonyad-e Shahid” (Foundation of the Martyr). “Bonyad-e Panzdeh-e Khordad” (Foundation of the 15th of khordad). This foundation announced  huge money prize for killing Salman Rushdie. “Bonyad-e Emdad Emam”, “Jihad al Bina’” and over 100 other one. (Extracts from the book: “Le Hezbollah Global – Les réseaux secrets de l’Iran”)

19- In addition to hundreds of companies created by ex-pasdarans, the IRGC have founded its own consortium or trust, named “Khatam al Anbiya’”. It has succeeded in directing and managing more than 1220 projects since 1990. It manages currently more than 250 industrial projects. This institution is exempted from taxes, and receives many contracts without tender for a “passe-partout” reason: “security”. The US announced on 11/2/2010, sanctions on 4 subsidiaries of this consortium, located outside Iran, and directed by General Rostam Qasemi. (Extracts from the book: “Le Hezbollah Global – Les réseaux secrets de l’Iran”)

20- Report: Iran’s Economy Shrank in 2012

http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2013/apr/16/report-iran’s-economy-shrank-2012

21- Iran’s economy shrank 5.4% in past calendar year: Central Bank

http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1827681

22- “العقوبات” موجعة: روحاني یخفض میزانیة إیران من ٦٨ إلى ٤٥ ملیار دولار!

www.metransparent.com/spip.php?article22925

23- IRAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iran/unemployment-rate

24- Iran: government’s enormous debt to the banks

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/29400

25- Iran central bank eliminates cheaper dollar rate

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2013/07/06/Iran-central-bank-eliminates-cheaper-dollar-rate-.html

It is worthy to note that in 2011, one US dollar equated 11000 Rials, but in October 2012, and due to the harsh sanctions and the government’s bad economic behavior, the one US dollar equated near 40000 Rials in the black market.

26- Sanctions against Iran – Frozen assets

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanctions_against_Iran#cite_note-93

Senators seek to block Iran from billion-dollar reserves

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27589:senators-seek-to-block-iran-from-billion-dollar-reserves&catid=4:iran-gener%E2%80%A6

27- Iran to stop cash handouts to millions of citizens

www.dailystar.com.lb/Business/Middle-East/2013/Aug-26/228618-iran-to-stop-cash-handouts-to-millions-of-citizens.ashx#axzz2etqu1ubY

 

28- Iran’s president appoints new head of central bank as nuclear program sanctions eat at economy.

www.foxnews.com/world/2013/08/25/iran-president-appoints-new-head-central-bank-as-nuclear-program-sanctions-eat/?

 

29- From Niavaran Street to the president’s office: Hassan Rowhani’s economic team

http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/Data/articles/Art_20540/E_106_13_542601282.pdf

30- Iran offers Syria $4 bn credit line

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gPvIV4RkiZpEZHdCWzk857jj5kkQ?docId=CNG.7b0df1107dcbdc8f82031bbc1504a6f0.851&hl=en

31- إيران تقرض سوريا مقابل الاستحواذ على استثمارات داخلية

http://www.inewsarabia.com/458/%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%B6-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B0-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AB%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9.htm

32- Report: Iran transfers $10 billion to Syria

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4287276,00.html

33- General Martin Dempsey says Syrian War Cost 1b a Month

http://guardianlv.com/2013/07/general-martin-dempsey-says-syrian-war-cost-1b-a-month/

34- Iran’s terror cells in Syria exposed

www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=28069:irans-terror-cells-in-syria-exposed&catid=4:iran-general&Itemid=26

35- The Lengthening List of Iran Sanctions

http://www.cfr.org/iran/lengthening-list-iran-sanctions/p20258?cid=rss-fullfeed-the_lengthening_list_of_iran_s-060613&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=f%E2%80%A6

36- U.S. House passes Iran sanctions bill to slash oil exports

www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/01/us-usa-iran-sanctions-idUSBRE96U1GK20130801

EIA: Sanctions cut Iran’s 2012 oil exports to lowest level since 1986

www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27515:eia-sanctions-cut-irans-2012-oil-exports-to-lowest-level-since-1986-&catid=%E2%80%A6

37- Iran parks millions of oil barrels on tankers as buyers retreat

www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/24/us-iran-shipping-oil-idUSBRE93N0XX20130424

38- Senators seek to target Iranian business in euros

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27282:senators-seek-to-target-iranian-business-in-euros&catid=4:iran-general&Ite%E2%80%A6

39- Iran’s rial hits an all-time-low against the US dollar

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19786662

40- Iranian regime agrees to take all oil payments from India in rupees

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/27521

Textile exports to Iran set for a rupee push

www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=28031:textile-exports-to-iran-set-for-a-rupee-push&catid=31:economy&Itemid=46

Iran to take Chinese subway cars for oil

www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=28032:iran-to-take-chinese-subway-cars-for-oil&catid=31:economy&Itemid=46

41- Regarding Significant Reductions of Iranian Crude Oil Purchases

www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/09/213890.htm

www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/06/210321.htm

42- US Congress in move to tighten financial noose on Iran

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9985023/US-Congress-in-move-to-tighten-financial-noose-on-Iran.html

New U.S. Sanctions on Nuclear Program, Bank and Shipping

http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2013/may/06/new-us-sanctions-nuclear-program-bank-and-shipping

43- US slaps sanctions on Iran’s petrochemical industry

www.nerve.in/news:253500551148

Iran: Regime’s bad debts and low consumer spending plunge Iran’s industry into crisis

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/26246

U.S. sanctions 20 companies and an individual for helping Iranian regime nuclear program

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/26275

U.S. blacklists firms for evading Iran oil sale sanctions

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27600:us-blacklists-firms-for-evading-iran-oil-sale-sanctions&catid=4:iran-general%E2%80%A6

U.S. Sanctions Secret Iranian Oil Network

http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2013/mar/14/us-sanctions-secret-iranian-oil-network

44- India-Iran company liquidated as sanctions bite

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27403:india-iran-company-liquidated-as-sanctions-bite&catid=4:iran-general&Itemi%E2%80%A6

Dell ends software maintenance with Iranian regime’s bank

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/24923

China’s ZTE says it basically dropped Iran business

www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27443:chinas-zte-says-it-basically-dropped-iran-business&catid=4:iran-general&It%E2%80%A6

UK blocks Shell paying Iran oil debt in food, medicine

www.irdiplomacy.ir/en/page/1915313/UK+blocks+Shell+paying+Iran+oil+debt+in+food%2C+medicine.html

U.S. blacklists firms for evading Iran oil sale sanctions

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27600:us-blacklists-firms-for-evading-iran-oil-sale-sanctions&catid=4:iran-general%E2%80%A6

45- Tanzania cries foul over masquerading Iranian oil ships

www.timesofisrael.com/tanzania-cries-foul-over-masquerading-iranian-oil-ships/

46- Insight: How European courts are dismantling sanctions on Iran

www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/15/us-iran-nuclear-courts-insight-idUSBRE96E0LS20130715

EU court strikes down sanctions imposed on several Iranian banks, businesses

www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09/06/eu-court-strikes-down-sanctions-imposed-on-several-iranian-banks-businesses/?

British Court Rules Against Sanctions on Iranian Bank

www.nytimes.com/2013/06/20/world/europe/british-court-rules-against-sanctions-on-iranian-bank.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

UK supreme court goes into secret session for first time

www.theguardian.com/law/2013/mar/21/uk-supreme-court-secret-session

47- British Supreme Court ruling threatens Western sanctions against Iran

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/06/19/uk-iran-sanctions-idUKBRE95I18A20130619

48- Iran seizes Indian ship carrying oil from Iraq

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-08-15/india/41412731_1_hormuz-indian-ocean-irgc

49- Indian tanker seized by Iran released

www.rediff.com/news/report/indian-tanker-seized-by-iran-released/20130905.htm

50- India Looks To Iran For Oil, Away From U.S. On Syria

www.forbes.com/sites/donaldkirk/2013/09/02/india-looks-to-iran-for-oil-away-from-u-s-on-syria/

51- For more information on the periphery doctrine and the Iran/Israel relationship, Trita Parsi’s book “Treacherous Alliance” is insightful.

52- Extracted from the book “Le Hezbollah Global – Les réseaux secrets de l’Iran”.

53- Lashkar Ab’ad: Iran’s Unexplained Laser Enrichment Capabilities

http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/lashkar-abad-irans-unexplained-laser-enrichment-capabilities/

Lashkar Ab’ad – Laser Uranium Enrichment

www.isisnucleariran.org/sites/detail/lashkar-abad-laser-enrichment/

54- What could U.N. sleuths unearth at Iran’s Parchin base?

www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/01/us-nuclear-iaea-laboratory-idUSBRE94005W20130501

 

 

55- Update on the Parchin Site

http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/august-22-2013-update-on-the-parchin-site-by-david-albright-and-robert-avag/

Iran Laying Asphalt at the Suspect Parchin Site

http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/iran-laying-asphalt-at-the-suspect-parchin-site/

56- Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant

http://www.nti.org/facilities/165/

57- Former MI chief Yadlin cautions over Iran’s plutonium program

www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Former-MI-chief-Yadlin-cautions-over-Irans-plutonium-program-322577

Nuclear watchdog raises Iranian plutonium concerns

www.theguardian.com/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2013/may/22/iran-nuclear-iaea-report-plutonium

58- People’s Mujahedin of Iran claims evidence of hidden nuclear site

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/27462

IRAN CONFIRMS SECRET NUCLEAR ‘QUDS’ SITE

http://www.wnd.com/2013/03/iran-confirms-secret-nuclear-quds-site/

59- Video shows troops attacking Iranian exile camp in Iraq

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/28989

60- For further information, Trita Parsi’s book “A single roll of the dice” is insightful.

61- Iran’s Foreign Ministry to lead nuclear talks with world powers

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4426473,00.html

62- Salehi Returns As Iran’s Nuclear Chief

www.rferl.org/content/iran-parliament-cabinet-salehi/25076913.html

Iran: Another Nuclear Official to Be Replaced

www.nytimes.com/2013/08/22/world/middleeast/iran-another-nuclear-official-to-be-replaced.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

63- Japan Seeks to Mediate US-Iran Dispute…Again

http://thediplomat.com/the-editor/2013/09/12/japan-seeks-to-mediate-us-iran-disputeagain/

64- Senior Swiss official arrives in Iran for talks

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/09/02/321706/top-swiss-official-arrives-in-iran/

65- Oman sultan’s Iran visit sparks hopes of progress in nuclear standoff

http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2013/aug/30/iran-oman-nuclear-negotiations

66- Obama says he and Iran’s Rowhani swapped letters

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Sep-15/231354-obama-says-he-and-irans-new-president-have-exchanged-letters.ashx

 

67- How Deeply is Iran Enmeshed in Syria?

http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2013/may/06/how-deeply-iran-enmeshed-syria

68- Hassan Nasrallah meets Khamenei in secret visit to Iran

www.mojahedin.org/newsen/25567

69- Iraqi Shi’ite militants fight for Syria’s Assad

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/16/us-syria-crisis-iraq-militias-idUSBRE89F0PX20121016

70- Iran says Syria will let UN inspect suspected chemical sites

www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=28176:iran-says-syria-will-let-un-inspect-suspected-chemical-sites&catid=4:iran-g%E2%80%A6

71- Sign of Changing Times?

http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2013/aug/26/sign-changing-times

72- «عبد اللهيان» في موسكو ويلتقي «بوغدانوف»

http://www.abna.ir/data.asp?lang=2&id=461035

73- Video Shows Iran’s Ex-President Criticizing Damascus Over Chemical Attack

http://flashvideo.rferl.org/Videoroot/Pangeavideo/2013/09/8/83/83d68206-fbaf-4efd-be57-c03f89939fdd.mp4

74- إيران ليست على قلب رجل واحد

http://alsa3idy.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%82%d9%84%d8%a8-%d8%b1%d8%ac%d9%84-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%af/

75- Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s Nominee For Foreign Minister, Seen As Olive Branch To United States

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/29/mohammad-javad-zarif-iran_n_3672256.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/29/us-iran-usa-zarif-idUSBRE96S0VO20130729

For further reading, Trita Parsi’s books “Treacherous Alliance” and “A single roll of the dice” are very insightful in here.

76- From the book of Mohammad Sayyed Rasas الاخوان المسلمون وايران الخميني – الخامنئي